《资本战争》内容简介

　　经济周期是由资金流——储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的，而不是由高通货膨胀或利率水平驱动的。资金流的巨大破坏力体现在“全球流动性”上，这是一个规模高达130万亿美元的流动资金池。

　　全球流动性描述的是通过全球银行体系与批发货币市场流入的信贷和国际资本的总流动。自20世纪80年代中期以来，放松管制、创新和宽松货币政策推动了国际金融市场规模的大幅增长，金融全球化已超过第一次世界大战前的一体化峰值。全球流动性驱动着这些市场：它往往是决定性的，通常具有破坏性，而且总是快速变化。近几十年来，华尔街的巨额收益中仅有1/5来自盈利：流动性的不断增长和投资者对高风险金融资产的偏好推高了股价。世界各地都有类似的经历，即使在印度等新兴市场，平淡的收益也未能阻止外资和国内共同基金推动股价上涨的浪潮。随着各国中央银行积极推行量化宽松政策，工业企业现金充裕，新兴市场投资者的财富水平不断提高，投资的流动性理论变得前所未有的重要。

　　这些贪婪的跨境流动的国际溢出效应引发了资本战争，并暴露了流动性不那么吸引人的一面，即所谓的“风险”。随着世界变得越来越大，它也变得越来越不稳定。自20世纪60年代初以来，世界经济及其金融市场遭受了三种类型的冲击——劳动力成本、石油和大宗商品价格，以及全球流动性。金融市场在脆弱的轴心上旋转，流动性的缺乏往往为即将到来的麻烦发出了警告。

　　全球流动性是一个被广泛讨论，但研究较少且定义模糊的话题。本书对这一主题进行了深入探讨，对全球流动性进行了清晰的定义和测算，并展示了其对投资者的重要性。书中重点讨论了中央银行的作用、影子银行、回购的兴起和批发货币的增长。此外，本书涵盖了中国日益占主导地位的金融经济的最新发展，将吸引从业人员、政策制定者、经济学家和学者，以及那些对金融市场如何运作感兴趣的普通读者。

　　作者简介

　　迈克尔·J.豪厄尔（MichaelJ.Howell）

　　经济学博士，CrossBorderCapital创始人、董事总经理。1986年，豪厄尔在担任投资银行所罗门兄弟公司的研究总监期间，开发了定量流动性研究方法。1992年，他被任命为霸菱证券的研究主管。1996年，他创立了CrossBorderCapital。在创立CrossBorderCapital之前，他曾三次被机构投资者评为“新兴市场策略师”。他在金融市场工作了30多年，经常在国际会议上发表演讲。

Brief introduction of Capital War

The business cycle is driven by the flow of money - the amount of savings and credit - not by high inflation or the level of interest rates. The massive disruption of capital flows is reflected in "global liquidity," a $130 trillion pool of liquidity.

Global liquidity describes the total flow of credit and international capital through the global banking system and wholesale money markets. Since the mid-1980s, deregulation, innovation, and easy monetary policies have fueled a massive increase in the size of international financial markets, and financial globalization has surpassed the peak of integration before World War I. Global liquidity drives these markets: it is often decisive, often disruptive, and always fast-moving. In recent decades, only a fifth of Wall Street's outsize gains came from earnings: rising liquidity and investors' appetite for risky financial assets pushed up share prices. There are similar experiences around the world, and even in emerging markets such as India, lackluster gains have failed to stem the tide of foreign and domestic mutual funds driving share prices higher. With central banks aggressively pursuing quantitative easing, industrial companies flush with cash and emerging market investors' wealth rising, the liquidity theory of investment has never been more important.

The international spillover effects of these voracious cross-border flows have sparked capital wars and exposed the less attractive side of liquidity, the so-called "risk." As the world gets bigger, it also gets more unstable. Since the early 1960s, the world economy and its financial markets have suffered three types of shocks - labor costs, oil and commodity prices, and global liquidity. Financial markets spin on an axis of fragility, and a lack of liquidity often signals a warning of trouble to come.

Global mobility is a widely discussed, but less studied and vaguely defined topic. This book explores the subject in depth, clearly defines and measures global liquidity, and demonstrates its importance to investors. The book focuses on the role of central banks, shadow banking, the rise of repo, and the growth of wholesale money. In addition, the book covers the latest developments in China's increasingly dominant financial economy and will appeal to practitioners, policymakers, economists and academics, as well as those general readers interested in how financial markets work.

About the author

By MichaelJ.Howell

PhD in Economics, Founder and Managing Director of CrossFrontier Capital. In 1986, Howell developed quantitative liquidity research methods while working as a research director at the investment bank Salomon Brothers. In 1992, he was appointed head of research at Baring Securities. In 1996, he founded CrossFrontier Capital. Prior to founding CrossFrontier Capital, he was named an "Emerging Markets Strategist" by institutional investors three times. He has worked in financial markets for more than 30 years and is a frequent speaker at international conferences.