内容简介

　　在1870年至1970年的一个世纪里，一场经济变革席卷美国，使美国人民的生活水平空前提高。内燃机、电力、电灯、室内管道、汽车、电话、飞机、空调、电视等一系列伟大发明和后续的增量式创新不仅推动了美国经济的高速增长，也彻底改变了美国人的生活和工作方式。户外体力劳动被空调环境中的室内劳动替代，烦琐的家务劳动越来越多地由电器设备承担，光明驱走了黑暗，取代隔离的不仅是旅游还有将世界带入客厅的电视。更重要的是，一个新生儿预期将活到72岁而不是45岁。全球金融危机后，美国能重续这一“特殊世纪”的辉煌吗？互联网和人工智能等新技术的发展能带来同样的经济改革吗？

　　此书将经济学与历史学相结合，既有对历史的生动叙述，也有对经济现象的深入分析，既从普通民众视角考察家庭日常生活和工作的细节，又以经济学家视角在经济增长这一更广阔的背景下解释这些细节，为读者呈现了一个“特殊世纪”的全景图。通过这样的分析，作者对上述两个问题的回答是：1870年至1970年的颠覆式经济变革及其创造的辉煌不可再现。在他看来，美国的生产率增长已经开始放缓，不平等加剧、教育停滞、人口老龄化、大学生债务和联邦政府债务不断增加，都将进一步阻碍生产率增长。走出困境必须找到新的办法。

　　此书既是对过去一个世纪的彻底变革的致敬，也是对未来更艰难时代的预言。在当前关于经济增长前景的争论中，此书所做的分析不容忽视。

　　作者简介

　　罗伯特•戈登（Robert J.Gordon）

　　美国西北大学社会科学教授，是世界上主要的研究通货膨胀、失业和生产率增长的专家之一。他最近的研究包括新经济的兴衰，美国生产率的增长复苏，以及欧洲的生产率增长停滞。著作颇丰，包括《生产率增长、通货膨胀与失业》（Productivity Growth,Inflation,and Unemployment）和《宏观经济学》（Macroeconomics）。

Content introduction

In the century between 1870 and 1970, an economic revolution swept through the United States, leading to an unprecedented rise in the standard of living of the American people. A series of great inventions, such as the internal combustion engine, electricity, light bulbs, indoor plumbing, automobiles, telephones, airplanes, air conditioning, television, and subsequent incremental innovations, have not only promoted rapid economic growth in the United States, but also completely changed the way Americans live and work. Outdoor manual labor is replaced by indoor labor in air-conditioned environments, tedious household tasks are increasingly undertaken by electrical equipment, light drives out darkness, and isolation is replaced not only by travel but also by television that brings the world into the living room. What's more, a newborn is expected to live to the age of 72 rather than 45. After the global financial crisis, can the United States regain the glory of this "special century"? Can the development of new technologies such as the Internet and artificial intelligence bring about the same economic transformation?

Combining economics and history, the book offers both a vivid account of history and an in-depth analysis of economic phenomena, examining the details of daily family life and work from the perspective of ordinary people and explaining them in the broader context of economic growth from the perspective of economists, giving readers a panoramic view of an "exceptional century". The answer to these two questions is that the disruptive economic changes of 1870 to 1970 and the glory they created cannot be repeated. In his view, productivity growth in the United States has already begun to slow, and rising inequality, stagnant education, an aging population, college student debt and rising federal government debt will further hamper productivity growth. New ways must be found to get out of trouble.

The book is both a tribute to the radical transformation of the past century and a prophecy of tougher times ahead. In the current debate about the prospects for economic growth, the book's analysis cannot be ignored.

About the author

By Robert J.Gordon

Professor of social sciences at Northwestern University is one of the world's leading experts on inflation, unemployment, and productivity growth. His recent research includes the rise and fall of the new economy, the recovery of productivity growth in the United States, and the stagnation of productivity growth in Europe. He is the author of several books, including Productivity Growth,Inflation,and Unemployment and Macroeconomics.