《增长》内容简介

　　增长一直是人类社会的一个不言而喻的、明确的目标。增长现象支配着世间万物。小到微生物个体和群落，大到帝国、文明乃至星系，都处在动态的增长变化过程之中。在本书中，斯米尔带领读者回溯了从微生物的感染到动植物的新陈代谢、从早期农业的出现到帝国与文明的兴衰等种种增长现象。

　　在自然环境中，人类驯化了动植物，改变了它们的生长，使其成为人类生活必不可少的部分。家禽、家畜和农作物的生长与它们处在自然环境中的祖先的生长截然不同，而这正是维持人类社会不断发展的关键基础之一。相比之下，在由人造物和人类行为组成的环境中，增长现象更为可观：技术革命和一系列新原动机的出现，将人类从依赖人力和畜力、增长缓慢乃至停滞不前的状态中解放出来，彻底改变了人口、经济和文明的形态。

　　然而，对任何增长来说，物质基础都是不可或缺的。现代社会的高速增长建立在大量使用经过亿万年才积累起来的化石能源的基础之上，现代人类对地球上的其他资源的开发利用也达到了空前的程度。在长远的未来，我们能否一次次地通过技术手段，让自己走上新的增长之路？技术乐观主义者们或许对此深信不疑。但本书作者认为，在这个问题上，我们必须保持谨慎态度。在一颗有限的星球上，无限增长显然是荒谬的。现代社会必须马上采取重大措施，才能确保生物圈的长期宜居性。

　　作者简介

　　著者简介

　　瓦茨拉夫•斯米尔（VaclavSmil），加拿大曼尼托巴大学杰出荣休教授，在经济、历史、能源、宏观政策等多个领域均有建树。他的主要作品有《能量与文明》（EnergyandCivilization:AHistory）、《世界是如何运转的》（HowtheWorldReallyWorks）、《巨变》（GrandTransitions:HowtheModernWorldWasMade）等。2010年，斯米尔入选《外交政策》（ForeignPolicy）杂志评选的“全球百位思想者”。2013年，比尔•盖茨在他的网站“盖茨笔记”（GatesNotes）上写下了如下文字：“没有哪个作者的书能像斯米尔的新书那样让我满心期待。”

Introduction to Growth

Growth has always been an unspoken and explicit goal of human society. The phenomenon of growth dominates everything in the world. From small microbial individuals and communities to large empires, civilizations and even galaxies, they are all in the process of dynamic growth and change. In this book, Smil takes the reader on a journey of growth, from microbial infection to the metabolism of plants and animals, from the emergence of early agriculture to the rise and fall of empires and civilizations.

In the natural environment, humans have domesticated plants and animals and altered their growth, making them an essential part of human life. The growth of poultry, livestock and crops is very different from that of their ancestors in their natural environment, and this is one of the key foundations for the continuous development of human societies. By contrast, in an environment composed of artifacts and human behavior, the phenomenon of growth is even more impressive: the technological revolution and the emergence of a new set of prime movers liberated humanity from dependence on human and animal power, slow or stagnant growth, and completely changed the shape of population, economy, and civilization.

However, the material basis is essential for any growth. The rapid growth of modern society is based on the massive use of fossil energy that has taken billions of years to accumulate, and the exploitation and utilization of other resources on the earth by modern human beings has also reached an unprecedented degree. In the long run, can we put ourselves on a new growth path again and again through technology? Technooptimists may be convinced. But here, the authors argue, we must be cautious. On a finite planet, infinite growth is clearly absurd. Modern societies must take drastic steps now to ensure the long-term habitability of the biosphere.

About the author

Author profile

VaclavSmil is Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba, Canada, where he has made contributions in the fields of economics, history, energy, and macro policy. His major works include the energy and civilization (EnergyandCivilization: AHistory), the world is how to run "(HowtheWorldReallyWorks)," the change "(GrandTransitions: HowtheModernWorl dWasMade), etc. In 2010, Smil was named one of the "100 Global Thinkers" by ForeignPolicy magazine. In 2013, Bill Gates wrote on his website, GatesNotes, that "no author's book has filled me with anticipation as much as Smil's new book."