作品简介
一书读懂债务周期与经济周期的关系，把握宏观经济要素与债券市场工具。
·债务和货币的概念相通。理解债务，才能更好地理解宏观经济。
·债务对经济的影响增加，如何规避风险，进而成为持续的经济内生增长动能？
·影响债务的因素复杂多样，如何抓住债务周期轮动的本质？
·债券如何定价？城投债、产业债、可转债的投资逻辑是什么？
在宏观经济要素上，作者详细阐述了经济周期与债务周期的相互影响，回顾了我国2018—2022年的货币政策，对比了中美不同的经济与债务结构，总结了市场差异。在经济主体上，书中探析了财政政策和货币政策的指挥棒作用，分析了企业发债涉及的信用问题，解读了居民部门消费与投资意愿对杠杆水平的影响。
在债务周期的视角下，这本书既有自上而下的宏观解读和学术理论，也有自下而上的交易策略和规避风险的方法，不仅可以指导投资者做债券交易，更帮助读者从债务与货币的角度理解整个时代和经济的逻辑。
明明，中信证券首席经济学家，研究所副所长，货币政策委员会专家。先后就职于中国人民银行货币政策一司、二司，于2015年加入中信证券。
清华五道口金融学院硕士，中国社会科学院博士。研究聚焦于宏观经济、利率、货币政策和流动性，多次获得国家级和省部级课题奖励。
著有《流动性理论与分析》《货币政策理论与分析》《全球货币政策与大国兴衰》《流动性理论与市场实践》等。
Introduction of works
The book understands the relationship between the debt cycle and the business cycle, and grasps the macroeconomic factors and bond market tools.
· The concepts of debt and money are connected. To understand debt is to understand macroeconomics better.
· With the increasing impact of debt on the economy, how to avoid risks and become a sustainable endogenous driving force for economic growth?
· The factors affecting debt are complex and diverse, how to grasp the nature of the debt cycle rotation?
· How are bonds priced? What is the investment logic of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds and convertible bonds?
In terms of macroeconomic factors, the author elaborates on the interaction between the business cycle and the debt cycle, reviews China's monetary policy from 2018 to 2022, compares the different economic and debt structures in China and the United States, and summarizes the market differences. In terms of economic entities, the book explores the baton role of fiscal policy and monetary policy, analyzes the credit problems involved in corporate bond issuance, and interprets the impact of consumer and investment willingness on leverage levels.
From the perspective of the debt cycle, this book includes top-down macro interpretation and academic theories, as well as bottom-up trading strategies and risk avoidance methods, which can not only guide investors to do bond trading, but also help readers understand the logic of the entire era and economy from the perspective of debt and money.
Ming Ming, Chief economist of Citic Securities, deputy director of the Research Institute, expert of the Monetary Policy Committee. He successively worked in the first and second Monetary Policy Departments of the People's Bank of China and joined CITIC Securities in 2015.
Master's degree from Tsinghua Pudaokou School of Finance, Doctor's degree from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His research focuses on macroeconomics, interest rates, monetary policy and liquidity, and he has won several national and provincial project awards.
He is the author of Liquidity Theory and Analysis, Monetary Policy Theory and Analysis, Global Monetary Policy and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers, Liquidity Theory and Market Practice, etc.
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